3 hours ago
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Police broke up anti-Netanyahu protests in Jerusalem on April 18, as demonstrators called for an end to ongoing wars. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market sits at 5.5% YES.
Market reaction
The Netanyahu out by April 30 market remains at 0.6% YES, indicating almost no expectation of imminent resignation. The June 30 market is modestly higher. The term structure shows a 5-point increase from April 30 to June 30 over 61 days, meaning traders price a slightly higher likelihood of Netanyahu leaving office as the year goes on. It would take $10,283 to move the June 30 market 5 percentage points, which indicates decent depth and resistance to abrupt shifts.
Why it matters
The protests point to growing domestic fatigue with Israel’s military operations against Iran and Hezbollah. Polls still show high support for the wars, but internal divisions are emerging. Trading volume is thin: the June 30 market sees just $566 in daily USDC volume, and the April 30 market $446 daily. The protests are a signal of domestic unrest, not a definitive political shift, but they add pressure on Netanyahu’s coalition.
What to watch
Watch for statements from Benny Gantz and other opposition leaders, and any coalition movements. The spread between the April and June dates implies that traders think any significant political shift would come in the medium term rather than immediately. With 73 days left until June 30, the question is whether street protests translate into actual coalition fractures.
At 6¢, a YES share for June 30 pays $1 if Netanyahu steps down, a 16.67x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe these protests will escalate into a real political crisis that breaks the coalition.
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