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UK cabinet ministers are publicly backing Prime Minister Keir Starmer amid a growing scandal over the Peter Mandelson affair. “Starmer out by June 30, 2026” now sits at 36% YES, down from 42% yesterday.
The cabinet’s public support has steadied odds across the board. “Starmer out by December 31, 2026” is at 62% YES, down from 66% yesterday. The June 30, 2026 market dropped 2 points in the last 24 hours as traders recalibrated expectations. The December 31, 2026 odds fell 4 points but still price in a higher likelihood of a longer-term resolution.
The Starmer resignation markets are relatively liquid, with combined daily USDC volume at $16,715. It takes $3,913 to move the June market 5 percentage points, indicating moderate depth. The largest single move yesterday was a 2-point drop. This pattern suggests the market is responding to real shifts in sentiment rather than isolated bets.
Backing from cabinet ministers like Liz Kendall and David Lammy acts as a buffer against immediate threats to Starmer’s position. The consistency of their support suggests the near-term risk of resignation is receding. But the term structure tells a different story further out: a 26-point gap between the June and December contracts means traders see a window for a political catalyst in the second half of 2026.
Watch for shifts in Labour’s internal dynamics or new revelations from the Mandelson affair. The May 2026 local elections are a key date; poor Labour results could reignite calls for Starmer’s resignation.
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