2 hours ago
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The Yuri supertanker, carrying Iranian oil, has stopped in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Kharg Island oil terminal attack market now sits at 7.5% YES, up from 4% a week ago.
The Yuri’s halt amid a US naval blockade coincides with a move higher in Kharg Island oil terminal attack by April 30 odds. The Kharg Island control by April 30 market is at 4.5% YES. The diplomatic meeting by April 30 market plummeted to 1.7% YES, down from 22% a week ago, meaning traders see almost no chance of a near-term diplomatic resolution.
The Kharg Island attack market trades $7,105/day in actual USDC, with just $1,177 needed to move odds by 5 points. This is a thin market where a few substantial trades could shift the odds considerably. The Kharg Island control market is thicker, trading $22,789/day in actual USDC and requiring $9,474 to shift odds by the same amount, which means pricing there is more stable.
The Yuri tanker’s halt near Hormuz has pushed odds on military-related markets upward, but the reaction is measured. Attack odds nearly doubled from 4% to 7.5%, yet the market still prices a Kharg Island strike as unlikely. Buying YES on Kharg Island losing Iranian control by April 30 at 4.5¢ pays $1 if it resolves YES, a 22.2x return, but that bet requires belief in imminent military action.
Watch for US or Iranian military announcements, particularly from CENTCOM. Iranian actions at Kharg Island or a shift in US naval strategy would be the signals most likely to move these markets.
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