1 hour ago
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President Trump has canceled a trip by US envoys to Pakistan, and the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026, have dropped to 3.2% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Market reaction
The cancellation has rattled an already fragile diplomatic process. The sub-market for a May 31 peace deal sits at 28.5% YES, down from 38% in 24 hours. The June 30 resolution market is at 43.0% YES, down from 57% yesterday.
The US blockade of Hormuz market shows the same direction, with YES shares at 55.5%, down from 72% a day earlier. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief collapsed to 7.0% YES from 62% a week ago.
Why it matters
Volume across these markets hit $854,504 in actual USDC over the past 24 hours. But the books are thin enough that $27,666 can move the April 30 peace deal market by 5 points, meaning large orders can shift prices quickly.
The cancellation follows a period where Trump had signaled openness to a deal. Pulling the envoys suggests either a strategic pause or a shift in approach. The across-the-board drops, especially the oil sanction relief market falling from 62% to 7% in a week, point to traders pricing in a much longer timeline for any agreement.
What to watch
New statements from Trump or Iranian leaders on diplomatic engagement. The next signal is most likely to come from Trump’s public communications or a visible change in Iran’s negotiating posture.
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