3 hours ago
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The USS Miguel Keith is heading toward the Strait of Hormuz for mine-clearing operations. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by May 31 is now ? YES.
The deployment adds military activity to a region where several Polymarket contracts are in play. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 31 faces downward pressure from potential IRGC threats. Traders expect escalated tensions to work against normalization. The US escorts in Hormuz market sits at 18% YES, consistent with growing expectations of escort operations.
The USS Miguel Keith’s movement has already pushed Strait of Hormuz traffic odds lower. The added naval presence is a bearish signal for traffic normalization, with an expected 15% move in odds. US escorts through Hormuz holds at 18% YES, up slightly from a week ago.
The US escorts through Hormuz market trades $6,939/day in USDC, with a modest depth requiring $2,104 to move the price 5 points. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 2-point drop at 3:15 AM, pointing to overnight volatility.
At 18%, a YES share pays $1 if the US escorts a commercial ship by April 30, a 5.5x return. The bet depends on further naval developments or official announcements confirming escort operations.
Watch for CENTCOM and Pentagon press releases on naval activities and any IRGC responses. Both will drive odds on traffic normalization and escort operations.
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