US extends sanctions waiver on Russian oil, easing supply pressures

The US has extended a sanctions waiver on Russian oil, easing immediate supply pressures. In the Crude Oil Price Predictions market on Polymarket, the probability of WTI hitting $160 in April has dropped as traders price in reduced supply disruption risk.

Market reaction

The 30-day extension gives a temporary reprieve to energy markets already strained by the US-Iran-Israel conflict. Traders in the crude oil market are adjusting positions accordingly. The market lacks historical odds data, but the waiver’s 30-day window should hold down supply-side fears through at least mid-May.

Why it matters

The waiver addresses immediate pressures but is not a long-term fix. Full resumption of sanctions after May could push prices back up if no further extensions follow. This is a strategic pause, not a policy reversal.

The market for Trump’s Agreement to Iranian Demands in April is unchanged, with odds steady at 50.5% YES. Because the waiver targets Russian oil specifically, not Iranian sanctions, traders in that market have no reason to move.

What to watch

The extension is a short-term measure with a hard expiration. Sanctions are set to resume post-May, so US Treasury announcements and any geopolitical shifts will matter most. A YES share on WTI hitting $160 in April remains a speculative bet absent more concrete energy policy changes.

Watch for Treasury Department signals and statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister and Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister. Changes in production agreements or new geopolitical friction could move these markets quickly.

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