USDC redemptions just outpaced mints by $4B, but a massive new token presale is quietly doubling Circle’s revenue outlook

Circle’s reserve engine absorbed a tough second quarter. Gross USDC redemptions exceeded mints by about $4 billion, and reserve yield slipped, while a larger balance base kept reserve income growing.Its biggest opportunity sits outside its reserves. Circle doubled the midpoint of its full-year other revenue outlook, which includes an undisclosed contribution from the ARC Token presale.Circle’s Aug. 5 earnings release puts the gross flows at $87 billion redeemed and $83 billion minted. Those rounded figures produce the roughly $4 billion gap.For Circle Mint customers, minting turns fiat into USDC, and redemption turns USDC back into fiat, according to Circle’s regulatory filing. The $4 billion difference describes customer flow activity, separate from reserve adequacy.Quarter-end USDC circulation was $73.3 billion, against a $76.5 billion quarterly average. It remained 19% higher than a year earlier.Circle’s reserve return rate fell 66 basis points year over year to 3.5%. The larger average USDC balance absorbed the rate hit, lifting reserve income 5% to $667.7 million.The 66-basis-point drop is a year-over-year comparison. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75%...