Russia launches major offensive with 2,000 drones, 19 missiles in a week

Russia has launched a significant offensive against Ukraine, deploying over 2,000 drones and 19 missiles in a week, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The attacks targeted civilian and infrastructure sites, indicating an intensification of Russia’s air campaign. This escalation comes amid ongoing conflict and stalled diplomatic efforts for peace. The heightened military threat appears to be a factor reducing the chances of Ukraine successfully recapturing Crimea by the end of 2026. Key Takeaways Market pricing suggests the intensified Russian air campaign is consistent with a decreased likelihood of Ukrainian success in recapturing Crimea. The escalation of drone and missile attacks may indicate sustained Russian strike capabilities, impacting the conflict’s dynamics. The current odds for Ukraine’s recapture of Crimea by December 31, 2026, have decreased, reflecting the increased military pressure. What to Watch Observers should monitor developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly any changes in military tactics or diplomatic negotiations. Key indicators will include updates from the Institute for the Study of War on territorial control and any new m...