US tariff threat disrupts copper surplus as prices near all-time peak

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange climbed to $14,343 per metric ton on August 25, approaching the all-time record of $14,527.50. The catalyst isn’t a mine collapse or a sudden surge in demand from electric vehicle makers. It’s the prospect of US tariffs reshaping global copper flows in ways that make the textbook surplus almost irrelevant. The threat of Section 232 tariffs on refined copper imports has triggered a rush of metal into American warehouses, swelling COMEX inventories to a record 675,185 metric tons after 46 consecutive days of gains. Every ton parked stateside is a ton that isn’t available to buyers in Europe, Asia, or anywhere else. A surplus that doesn’t feel like one Earlier this year, CRU projected a comfortable 639,000-ton global copper surplus for 2026. US refined copper imports hit roughly 885,000 tons in the first half of 2026 alone, a 3% increase year-on-year. For context, full-year 2025 saw a record 1.64 million tons flow into the country. If a significant chunk of a 639,000-ton global surplus gets rerouted into COMEX warehouses before tariffs kick in, the rest of the world’s copper market tightens considerably. A surplus in aggregate doesn’t help a ...