US July CPI report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 12

Mark your calendars for August 12. At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops the Consumer Price Index reading for July 2026, and the number it prints will land directly in the inbox of every Federal Reserve official preparing for September’s policy meeting. What the forecasts say Consensus expectations heading into the release are relatively tame. Analysts are projecting a 0.1% monthly gain for the headline CPI, the broadest measure of price changes across goods and services bought by urban households. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices because of how wildly they swing, is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month. On an annual basis, forecasters expect headline inflation to come in at 3.4% for July, down slightly from June’s 3.5% year-over-year reading. Core CPI is projected at 2.5% annually, also a fractional step lower than the prior month. The June report added some interesting texture to this picture. That data showed a 0.4% month-over-month decline in the all-items index, a meaningful drop that suggested some real near-term relief on the price front. Why this report carries extra weight The Federal Reserve does not operate on vibes. It operates on data...