Israel conducts 28 airstrikes on Nabatieh ridge amid Lebanon tensions

Israel continued its military operations in southern Lebanon, conducting 28 airstrikes on the Nabatieh ridge overnight. This marks the fourth consecutive day of bombardments in the region, which is strategically significant due to its association with Hezbollah infrastructure. The escalation comes as tensions remain high despite a fragile US-brokered ceasefire from June 2026. The ongoing conflict has seen Israeli forces maintain a presence in southern Lebanon, with talks on withdrawal and disarmament still unresolved. The strikes suggest an intensifying military focus on strategic targets linked to Hezbollah, raising concerns about the prospects for peace in the region. Key Takeaways The ongoing airstrikes on the Nabatieh ridge appear consistent with a lower likelihood of Israeli troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon by year-end. Pricing suggests a decreased probability of Israeli forces withdrawing from beyond the Litani River, with the December 31 sub-market reflecting 10.5% YES. The recent escalation in military operations may indicate resistance to disengagement, affecting the likelihood of a peaceful resolution. What to Watch Observers will be closely monitoring any official ...