Scott Bessent predicts US-Iran deal on Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, oil prices slide

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on CNBC on Monday and casually mentioned that the United States and Iran might hammer out a deal over the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. Oil prices promptly fell off a cliff. The prediction, made on August 4, suggested an agreement could materialize “today or tomorrow.” For a waterway that handles roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply, that’s the kind of timeline that moves markets in a hurry. What’s actually happening at the Strait of Hormuz The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman where tankers carry massive volumes of crude oil from Persian Gulf producers to the rest of the world. Since July 2026, access through the strait has been severely disrupted amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Bloomberg has characterized the situation bluntly as “War With Iran” in its recent coverage. Prior diplomatic efforts have involved China and Qatar, with signals of progress emerging from Doha. But nothing has stuck. Bessent’s remarks represent the most concrete timeline any senior US official has put on a potential resolution. Oil drops, and everything else pays attention The immediate market reaction was straight...