Russia cuts 2026 oil output forecast to 17-year low amid refinery disruptions

Russia has revised its 2026 oil production forecast to 511 million tonnes, marking the lowest level since 2009. This adjustment represents a significant reduction from earlier projections of 525.2 million tonnes for 2026. The revised forecast aligns with 2025’s output levels but highlights a shift away from previously anticipated increases in production over the coming years. The move comes amid reports of Russian crude output running below OPEC+ benchmarks due to disruptions in refineries and export infrastructure. Market participants are now considering the potential implications for global oil supply and prices, with the forecast cut potentially tightening supply chains. Key Takeaways Russia’s revised oil output forecast suggests a shift in production strategy, aligning 2026 output with 2025 levels. This development appears consistent with scenarios where global oil supply could tighten, potentially impacting prices. Market pricing could indicate a reassessment of the likelihood of crude oil reaching new all-time highs by the end of the year. What to Watch Observers will be closely monitoring OPEC’s responses and any potential changes in production quotas that could further infl...