Global sell-off in government bonds rattles investors

The math on government debt is getting uncomfortable, and bond markets are making sure everyone knows it. A sweeping global sell-off in government bonds has pushed long-term yields to levels not seen in more than a decade, raising borrowing costs for everyone from homebuyers in Ohio to sovereign treasuries in Tokyo. The numbers are hard to ignore US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to approximately 4.78%, the highest since January 2025. The 30-year Treasury yield pushed past 5.3%, a level the market hasn’t touched since 2007, back when the phrase “subprime mortgage” was just entering the public vocabulary. The sell-off isn’t a US-only phenomenon. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield hit 3%, the highest since 1996, a striking move for a country that spent the better part of three decades fighting deflation. UK gilt yields surpassed 5.2%, a mark last seen in 2008. German and French long-term yields reached their highest points since 2011 and 2008 respectively. A Bloomberg gauge tracking global government bond yields rose to 3.72%, the highest since mid-2008. Two forces are doing most of the damage. First, oil prices surged above $90 per barrel in August amid escalating US-Iran milita...