Prediction markets face CFTC scrutiny ahead of 2026 US midterms

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has said the agency is monitoring prediction markets for possible manipulation ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, according to reporting on his latest television interview. Summary Mike Selig says the CFTC is monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of U.S. midterms. Kalshi and Polymarket held $250 million in combined midterm open interest as of Oct. 18. CFTC settlements against Gabriel Perez and George Santos imposed financial sanctions and three-year trading bans. September guidance called for contract-specific safeguards on markets tied to individuals’ words or actions. Bloomberg’s Oct. 23 interview with Selig covered election-market surveillance alongside an investigation into oil trading during the Iran war, according to an accessible summary of its reporting. The summary says the agency is watching for signs of manipulation ahead of the midterms, without identifying a new election-related enforcement case. The remarks concern a market that already holds hundreds of millions of dollars in open positions. Dune’s Oct. 20 research put combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket at $250 million as of Oct. 18. The accessibl...