OECD cuts Turkey’s 2026 growth forecast amid Iran war, rising prices

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised Turkey’s economic growth forecast for 2026, reducing it to 2.7% from the previous 3.1%. This adjustment marks the lowest projected growth rate for Turkey since 2020. The OECD attributes the downgrade to ongoing geopolitical tensions, specifically citing the Iran war, and escalating prices for energy and commodities. This revision is the third such downgrade this year, reflecting persistent concerns about Turkey’s economic resilience amid high inflation rates, now expected to reach 31.5% in 2026. Key Takeaways The OECD’s revision appears to be consistent with expectations of ongoing economic challenges for Turkey, linked to geopolitical instability and rising prices. The market for crude oil prices suggests higher probabilities of reaching new all-time highs due to the potential for increased geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. Current market pricing reflects a cautious outlook on Turkey’s economic growth prospects, influenced by inflationary pressures and regional conflicts. What to Watch Markets may focus on upcoming developments in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Iran conflict, whi...