Nvidia faces $200B AI-related credit exposure risk as Wall Street raises alarm over financing strategy

Nvidia doesn’t just sell the shovels in the AI gold rush anymore. It’s increasingly financing the miners, too. Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of Nvidia’s credit profile with a neutral rating, projecting that the chipmaker’s total AI-related credit exposure could hit roughly $200 billion by the end of 2028. That figure includes around $170 billion in adjustments and contingent obligations that sit mostly off Nvidia’s balance sheet. The circular financing problem The core concern is something analysts are calling “circular financing.” Nvidia makes chips. Nvidia also helps finance the companies buying those chips. When the entity purchasing your product partly exists because you’re bankrolling it, the revenue starts to look a little less organic. In 2026 alone, Nvidia has been linked to financing arrangements exceeding $540 billion. A proposed $250 billion backing for OpenAI and a $500 billion compute-financing platform involving Apollo, BlackRock, and KKR together represent more than $750 billion in potential commitments. CEO Jensen Huang has pushed back on the framing, arguing that many of these structures involve mobilizing third-party capital rather than putting Nvidia’s own ba...