Kalshi traders bet inflation has peaked for 2026 but will stay sticky

Traders on Kalshi think inflation has already hit its high-water mark for 2026. They just don’t expect the water to drain anytime soon. Pricing on the CFTC-regulated prediction market implies a median headline CPI reading of roughly 3.6% year-over-year for December 2026. That would be a peak in the rearview mirror, but a sticky one that refuses to fade quietly. What the Kalshi market is pricing Kalshi lets traders buy contracts tied to specific outcomes, like whether a given CPI print lands above or below a set level. When enough money piles into those bets, the prices start acting like a crowd-sourced forecast. Right now, that crowd is fairly confident inflation won’t cool much by year-end. The odds that headline CPI stays above 3.4% for December 2026 are estimated at over 90%. The probability of a reading above 3.5% sits at about 64%. Push the bar higher and confidence fades fast. The chance of inflation topping 4.0% for December 2026 is priced at 21%. Traders see a hot finish as possible, but not the base case. These are not vibes-based guesses resolved by a panel of experts. Kalshi’s contracts settle on official CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, measured to one deci...