Michigan-Kalshi litigation could reach Supreme Court, experts say

Kalshi is caught in a legal tug-of-war between Michigan and the federal government. The prediction market platform’s fight with the Michigan Attorney General could land before the US Supreme Court, potentially setting the definitive precedent for who actually gets to regulate prediction markets. Two governments, two orders, one company Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel filed suit against KalshiEx LLC on March 3, 2026, in Ingham County Circuit Court. The accusation was straightforward: Kalshi was allegedly violating Michigan’s Lawful Sports Betting Act by offering unlicensed sports event contracts to state residents. The case wound through procedural channels, with a federal district court eventually remanding it back to state court. On June 29, 2026, Judge Rosemarie Aquilina issued a temporary restraining order that blocked Kalshi from offering or advertising sports-related contracts to anyone in Michigan. Then, in July 2026, the CFTC stepped in and ordered Kalshi to continue its Michigan trades — the federal regulator told Kalshi to keep doing the exact thing the state court told it to stop doing. The core question is whether the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s federal ...