Market raises odds of a 25 bps Fed rate hike to 24.9% ahead of October meeting

The market now assigns a 24.9% chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 basis points at its October 28 meeting. That is roughly a one-in-four shot at another hike, barely a month after the last one. What traders are pricing in The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet October 27-28, 2026. The 24.9% reading lines up with figures shown on CME FedWatch, which tracks rate expectations implied by fed funds futures. That CME reading came after dovish remarks from Fed officials. Those comments briefly cooled hike expectations, and the odds then slipped ahead of the latest inflation print. Then the September Consumer Price Index arrived on October 14. Prices rose 0.6% month over month, the largest monthly increase in five months. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, also came in above forecasts. Odds of a hike jumped from the mid-teens to somewhere between 33% and 47%, depending on which market you checked. On Kalshi, the probability of a 25 basis point hike climbed to 33%, up from 16% before the report. Polymarket saw an even sharper move, with odds peaking at approximately 47.5%. Despite all the movement, current pricing still treats no change...