Lula condemns US-Iran Hormuz toll scheme as ‘piracy’ amid 2026 crisis

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has criticized a U.S.-Iran toll mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz, labeling it as “piracy.” This condemnation comes amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, sparked by Operation Epic Fury, a U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran. The strait, a vital artery for global oil transport, remains largely closed by Iran in retaliation for the strikes. Lula’s remarks add to the international pressure on Iran regarding maritime traffic fees, which Iran, along with Oman, proposed as “voluntary” service fees following a ceasefire memorandum initially suggested by the U.S.

The market for Iran charging Hormuz transit fees by July 15, 2026, has seen a slight increase in implied probability, rising from 3% to 4.6% in the last 24 hours. This suggests market participants may view Lula’s statement as indicative of shifting international dynamics that could influence Iran’s decision on implementing the tolls. Meanwhile, the chance of the U.S. imposing such fees remains low, as markets continue to reflect skepticism about the U.S. adopting such measures.

Markets tracking the potential for Iran to charge fees by August 31, 2026, have shown a notable increase in activity, with the probability rising to 58.5%. This indicates a growing expectation that Iran might proceed with the fee imposition within the next two months, reflecting the heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing maritime disputes in the region.

Key Takeaways

• Lula’s condemnation appears to add diplomatic pressure on Iran, consistent with increased likelihood of Iran imposing fees.
• Market pricing suggests a rising probability of Iran charging Hormuz transit fees by the end of August 2026.
• U.S. fee imposition on Hormuz remains unlikely, as indicated by current market pricing and diplomatic statements.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor any official announcements from Iran regarding the implementation of tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, as these could further influence market expectations. Additionally, developments in U.S. foreign policy or statements from key U.S. officials may impact perceptions of potential American responses to the crisis. The upcoming weeks could see further shifts in market pricing as geopolitical dynamics unfold.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.