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Israel bombed Lebanon despite a ceasefire, citing Hezbollah rocket attacks. The odds of an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026, are at 100% YES, unchanged despite the news.
The strike undermines the already fragile ceasefire, but traders aren’t budging. The April 30 market also sits at 100% YES. No trades were made in the past 24 hours, suggesting traders are waiting for more concrete developments.
Meanwhile, the Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 is at 3% YES, barely moving from 3% yesterday. The June 30 contract dropped to 11.5%, down from 14% a day ago. Traders may be pricing in the escalation’s effect on broader peace talks.
Trading volume on these markets tells its own story. The Israel x Iran peace deal market has $1,216 in daily USDC trades. It only takes $111 to shift the odds by 5 points, meaning a single large order can swing the price. The largest move was a 2-point spike, consistent with a cautious environment.
For traders, the news points to an entrenched conflict. A ceasefire seems unlikely soon, but at 3¢, a YES share in the peace deal market pays $1 if it resolves, a 33x return. Believing in a peace deal by April 30 requires expecting a swift diplomatic breakthrough.
Keep an eye on Abbas Araghchi’s talks in Islamabad. If Pakistan brokers any new terms, that could shift the odds. Also watch Netanyahu’s statements for any deviation from the current military strategy.
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