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Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has stated that Tehran will not negotiate “under the shadow of threats,” hinting at new military strategies. The odds of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 22 are at 13.5% YES, up from 16% yesterday.
Market reaction
Ghalibaf’s comments moved the April 22 peace deal market, which is now just two days from resolution. The market rose 2.5 points before the statement, then reversed. The April 30 market sits at 31.5% YES, with the most notable movement being a 5-point drop at 2:52 PM, likely a reaction to the hardening Iranian stance.
The May 31 and June 30 markets moved less dramatically. With odds at 60.5% and 70.5% respectively, traders appear to expect a resolution later, likely pricing in the time needed for any diplomatic shifts.
Why it matters
The peace deal market sees $999,935 in daily USDC volume, with $38,018 needed to move the April 22 market by 5 points. That’s a relatively thick order book, suggesting institutional participation. The biggest single recent movement was a 4-point spike tied to Ghalibaf’s rhetoric.
Ghalibaf’s declaration points toward confrontation rather than compromise, shrinking immediate prospects for a deal. At 13.5¢, a YES share would yield a 5.5x return if resolved. That bet requires belief in last-minute diplomacy overcoming entrenched positions with two days left on the clock.
What to watch
Any signs of progress or breakdown in Islamabad talks, particularly from Pakistan’s mediation efforts. Trump’s next statements or further remarks from Ghalibaf could shift the odds sharply.
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