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Sources indicate Islamabad talks between the US and Iran could resume Wednesday morning. The US-Iran ceasefire extension by April 21 sits at 36% YES, down from 69% a week ago.
The April 21 deadline is one day away. Odds have dropped 33 points over the past week, with the sharpest single move being a 16-point drop at 2:54 PM, showing how reactive traders are to diplomatic signals. If talks actually resume, the market could stabilize or reverse some of that decline.
Daily volume is $264,370 in USDC. It costs $2,773 to move the market 5 points, enough liquidity to absorb moderate trades without wild swings. That said, the 16-point drop shows large orders can still punch through.
A YES share at 36¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire is extended, a 2.78x return. The bet depends on whether Islamabad talks can produce results within a single day, a tight window for any diplomatic process.
Watch for official announcements from Islamabad, particularly statements from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif or Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. Confirmation that talks have resumed, or any progress reports, would likely move the market fast.
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