Iran mobilizes proxies to disrupt shipping, pressure US in 2026 conflict

Iran is reportedly mobilizing its proxy forces to disrupt shipping and increase oil prices in a bid to pressure the United States, according to a report by Ynet News. This development is part of the ongoing U.S.–Iran war that has escalated throughout 2026, involving Israel and regional Iran-backed groups. Iran’s strategy appears to focus on proxy warfare and maritime disruption rather than a direct conventional conflict with the U.S., impacting global oil flows through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The strait, a key chokepoint for global oil, has seen traffic slow significantly, with insurers withdrawing war-risk cover and tankers experiencing delays. Key Takeaways Iran’s mobilization of proxy forces appears to suggest a strategy of indirect escalation, impacting the odds of traffic normalization in the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz market is pricing a low probability of traffic normalization by August 31, with YES odds at 6.5%, reflecting continued tensions. Market pricing for Iran’s airspace closure indicates an increased likelihood of restrictions, with the YES probability for an August 31 closure rising to 43%. What to Watch Observers should monitor any official anno...