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Iran has again closed the Strait of Hormuz, citing unresolved issues in U.S. peace talks. Odds for a ceasefire by April 30 are at 37.5% YES, down from 59% a day ago.
The ceasefire-by-April-30 market dropped sharply as the Strait re-closure and IRGC gunfire on tankers raised tensions. The market for a ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 is now at 17.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday. Traders are pricing in growing skepticism about a near-term resolution.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker mentioned some progress in talks, but gaps remain wide. This mixed messaging shows up in the market for Trump agreeing to sanction relief by April, which sits at 31.2% YES. That number has barely moved over the past week, which suggests traders see little chance of a breakthrough.
Daily USDC volume in the ceasefire market is $80,435. It takes $1,566 to shift the price by 5 points, making it susceptible to volatility from large orders. The largest recent move was a 4-point drop, a reactive trade to the Strait news.
Iran’s selective control of the Strait directly affects global oil and LNG shipping routes. A YES share at 38¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 2.63x return. That payout only makes sense if you expect a diplomatic breakthrough before the deadline.
Watch for Trump’s statements and any intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar. A scheduled meeting or confirmed back-channel talks could move odds fast.
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