If the CLARITY Act dies: the three Democrats who could bury crypto legislation for a generation

Kalshi puts the Democratic House majority at 84%. Maxine Waters, Shontel Brown, and Elizabeth Warren would control the committees that write crypto law. The industry’s legislative window may be closing faster than its lobbyists admit. Summary Kalshi prediction market odds place the probability of a Democratic House majority at 84% for the 2026 midterms, a figure that would return Representative Maxine Waters to the chair of the House Financial Services Committee. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act faces a recess deadline that Polymarket odds have already priced at under 50% for passage this session. If the CLARITY Act fails and Democrats take the House, the two committees responsible for crypto legislation would be led by lawmakers who have spent years opposing or deprioritizing digital asset bills. Senator Elizabeth Warren would likely lead the Senate Banking Committee if Democrats win the upper chamber, giving crypto skeptics control of all four committees involved in market structure legislation. Charles Schwab, which manages $13 trillion in client assets, publicly called the CLARITY Act a “key catalyst” for its digital asset strategy. The crypto industry spent the first half ...