Gold steadies near $4,000 as US inflation data eases rate-hike bets

Gold found its footing near $4,000 an ounce on June 25 after US inflation data came in exactly where markets expected, slightly reducing the probability of a near-term rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, landed in line with forecasts. The immediate effect: odds of a September rate hike slipped from 68% to 63%.

A long fall from the peak

Gold hit approximately $5,589 back in January 2026. It has since lost roughly 25-28% of that value. The metal dipped as low as the $3,981-$3,999 range before steadying near $4,000. The previous month alone saw a roughly 10% decline.

A US dollar at its highest level in about a year has made gold more expensive for international buyers. Hawkish signals from the Fed following recent FOMC meetings reinforced the idea that rate cuts aren’t coming anytime soon, and rate hikes might actually be on the table. Inflation concerns tied to geopolitical factors have kept the central bank in a cautious posture.

Bitcoin is riding the same wave, and that matters

Bitcoin dropped to the $61,000-$62,000 range during the same period, tracing a path that looks remarkably similar to gold’s trajectory. Both gold and Bitcoin are non-yielding assets. Neither pays interest or dividends. When the opportunity cost of holding them rises, because rates are going up or expected to go up, capital rotates toward assets that actually generate returns. Equities, especially AI-related names, have been drawing flows.

What this means for investors

The PCE data meeting expectations reduced the urgency for the Fed to hike aggressively, which is why September rate-hike odds dipped five percentage points. On the other hand, inflation meeting expectations at elevated levels isn’t the same as inflation falling.

If upcoming inflation data comes in hot, pushing September rate-hike odds back above 68% or higher, both gold and Bitcoin face another leg down. Gold has already shed more than a quarter of its value from the January peak. Another hawkish surprise could push it well below $4,000, while Bitcoin’s correlation suggests it would follow suit into the mid-to-low $50,000s.

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