Democrats lead in Texas Senate, governor races: Marist Poll

Photo: Vitaliy Haiduk / Pexels A recent Marist Poll indicates that Democratic candidates are leading their Republican counterparts in the upcoming 2026 Texas Senate and gubernatorial elections. In the Senate race, Democrat James Talarico has garnered 50% support compared to 44% for the current Texas Attorney General, Republican Ken Paxton. Meanwhile, in the governor’s race, Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa is ahead of the incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott, with 49% over Abbott’s 46%. The poll reflects a competitive political environment in Texas, a state traditionally viewed as a Republican stronghold, suggesting a potential shift in voter sentiment. Key Takeaways The Marist Poll suggests Democrats are currently leading in both the Texas Senate and governor races, with Talarico and Hinojosa ahead of their opponents. Market data shows a 60.5% YES probability for a Democratic win in the Texas Senate race, indicating confidence among market participants in a potential Democratic victory. The polling results and subsequent market movements indicate a shift in voter preference, which could impact campaign strategies as the elections approach. What to Watch Future polls and pol...