Commerzbank cuts year-end gold price forecast, but still sees 8% upside from current levels

Commerzbank has lowered its year-end 2026 gold price target to $4,800 per ounce, down from $5,000. That is still a bullish call, but it tells you something when even the optimists are pulling back. With spot gold trading around $4,484 as of early June, the revised target implies roughly 8% upside from current levels. Why the trim Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank pointed to a familiar culprit: the Federal Reserve. Rising oil prices have shifted expectations around monetary policy, making rate cuts less likely and potentially pushing the Fed toward a more hawkish stance. The Iran conflict has added another layer of complexity to the equation. Geopolitical tensions typically boost gold as a safe haven, but when those same tensions drive oil prices higher, they create inflationary pressure that forces central banks to keep rates elevated. Commerzbank’s 2027 gold target remains unchanged at $5,200 per ounce, suggesting this is more of a timing adjustment than a fundamental rethink. The institutional consensus is shifting Commerzbank isn’t alone in recalibrating. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, HSBC, and JPMorgan have all trimmed their near-term gold forecasts during June and July 2026. Th...