China test-fires ballistic missile in Pacific as geopolitical risk calculus shifts for crypto markets

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China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on September 25, 2024, marking the first time in 44 years that Beijing has publicly tested an ICBM in international waters. The missile carried a dummy warhead and traveled approximately 11,500 kilometers, landing in the Pacific high seas near the exclusive economic zone of Kiribati.

The Chinese Ministry of National Defense described the launch as a routine training exercise compliant with international law. Several Pacific island nations, including Fiji and Palau, raised concerns about regional stability and the lack of prior notification.

What actually happened

The ICBM was launched from Hainan Island, China’s southernmost province. This wasn’t a quiet affair. Public ICBM tests into international waters are exceedingly rare for China, with the last one dating back to 1980, when the country was still in the early stages of its nuclear modernization program.

China currently operates approximately six Jin-class (Type 094) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. These vessels carry JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles with a reported range exceeding 10,000 kilometers. Beijing is also developing the next-generation Type 096 SSBNs.

The geopolitical backdrop

Kiribati, whose EEZ borders the missile’s splashdown zone, is a small nation that finds itself on the receiving end of great-power military signaling. Palau and Fiji have been vocal about their discomfort with the lack of advance warning.

What this means for crypto investors

In this specific case, there has been no discernible impact on digital asset prices. No panic selling, no safe-haven bid, no unusual volume spikes tied to the ICBM test. Searches across both conventional and crypto-focused media found no mention of cryptocurrencies, tokens, or protocols in connection to the ICBM launch.

If China were to conduct an actual submarine-launched ballistic missile test in the open Pacific — something that has not been confirmed in the 2024 timeframe — the market reaction might look different. A SLBM test carries different strategic implications than a land-based launch because it demonstrates a mobile, harder-to-detect nuclear delivery capability.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

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