Bitcoin Flips a 12-Year Midterm Pattern. Can It Hold Through Friday?

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure Bitcoin crossed its most telling election-day threshold before a single vote was counted. On the morning of November 3, BTC traded near $76,990, roughly $3,821 above its 200-day moving average. On each of the previous three U.S. midterm election days, Bitcoin was still trading below that line. That gives investors a more meaningful number to watch this week than $77,000. At roughly $73,169, Bitcoin’s 200-day average marks the level around which its longer-term trend has turned in buyers’ favor. The midterm results and Friday’s U.S. jobs report are about to test how much of that lead BTC can keep. What Changed Between the 2022 and 2026 Midterms? One number puts this week’s Bitcoin news in perspective. At the 2022 midterms, BTC traded roughly 22% below its 200-day average. On Tuesday morning, it stood 5.2% above it. That’s a 27.2-percentage-point swing in Bitcoin’s position relative to its own trend. Even 2018, the strongest of the three previous midterm readings, came in 9% below the line. The distinction matters even though BTC recently fell below $77,000. A move from $77,000 to $76,...