Kalshi’s midterm trading volume tops $1 billion as traders bet on Democrats

Election contracts on the CFTC-regulated platform have pulled in more than $1.4 billion, with traders pricing a 93% chance Democrats win the House Election Day has arrived, and a lot of Americans have money riding on it. Kalshi’s midterm-related trading volume has passed $1.4 billion as of Tuesday, according to data the company supplied to Fortune. The crowd is leaning blue. Kalshi traders are giving Democrats a 93% chance of winning control of the House and a 73% chance of taking the Senate. Where the money is going The single biggest market on the platform asks a simple question: which party will control Congress? That contract alone has attracted $251 million in trading volume. A narrower contract on which party wins the House has crossed $181 million. Put another way, two contracts account for well over $400 million of the action. The rest is spread across a long list of Senate, House and governor races. Some individual contests have become crowd favorites. The Senate races in Texas and Michigan have each drawn tens of millions of dollars in volume. Together, those two races make up nearly half of all individual Senate trading on Kalshi. The odds have shifted a little depending...