Atlanta Fed GDPNow model projects Q3 2026 growth near 6%, a sharp acceleration from Q2

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is projecting real GDP growth of 5.8% for the third quarter of 2026, a number that would represent a dramatic acceleration from the 1.5% growth rate the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported for Q2. Even after a slight downward revision from prior readings, the estimate points to an economy that appears to be shifting into a significantly higher gear. The 5.8% figure, updated on August 6, marks a modest 0.1 percentage point decline from the previous estimate. A week of whiplash The Q3 2026 GDPNow estimate started at 5.0% on July 30, the same day the BEA published its advance estimate for Q2. By August 3, it had surged to 6.2%. Then came back-to-back cooling: 5.9% on August 4, followed by the current 5.8% reading on August 6. GDPNow is a mechanical aggregation of forecasts across 13 GDP subcomponents. It ingests data from federal economic sources as they publish, recalculates, and spits out a new number, with no subjective adjustments. The primary culprit behind the latest dip: a slight softening in the forecast for personal consumption expenditures growth, which ticked down from 4.2% to 4.1%. Context: from crawl to sprint The gap between Q2’s actual 1....