Adobe forecasts ChatGPT-driven traffic to retail sites will surge 130% this holiday season

Adobe’s annual US online holiday shopping forecast just dropped a number that should make every retailer sit up straight: AI-assisted traffic to retail websites is projected to grow 130% year-over-year between November 1 and December 31, 2026. The numbers behind the AI shopping boom Adobe’s forecast, released September 28, paints a picture of a holiday season where generative AI tools aren’t just novelties but genuine drivers of commerce. The company projects total US online holiday spending will hit $275.1 billion, a 6.7% increase from last year. Within that massive pie, AI-referred visitors are punching well above their weight. Adobe’s data shows these shoppers generated 43% higher revenue per visit in August 2026 compared to visitors arriving through non-AI channels. Cart-add rates among AI-referred visitors exceeded 32% during certain periods. The AI traffic surges aren’t evenly distributed across the season, either. Adobe projects a 141% spike in AI-assisted traffic on Thanksgiving Day, followed by a 95% increase on Black Friday and an 88% jump on Cyber Monday. Cyber Monday remains the single biggest online shopping day, with projected spending of $15.1 billion, up 6.2% year-o...