A Russian Su-35 just flew into Ukrainian-controlled airspace for the first time in years, and got away clean

A Russian Su-35 fighter jet reportedly entered Ukrainian-controlled airspace for the first time in years, launching a Kh-59/69 cruise missile at Sumy City before returning to Kursk Oblast unchallenged. According to reports, the aircraft encountered no retaliation from Ukrainian air defenses, nor were any fighter jets scrambled in response. This development has raised questions among analysts about possible gaps in Ukraine’s air defense capabilities or a shift in Russian confidence regarding the threat environment. The incident occurs amidst ongoing high-intensity conflict, with both Russia and Ukraine conducting offensive operations and strikes. Key Takeaways The incursion of a Russian Su-35 into Ukrainian airspace suggests increased Russian confidence in the current military environment. No Ukrainian air defense response was reported, indicating either a strategic decision or a potential depletion of interceptive capabilities. Market pricing for a NATO-Russia military clash by December 31, 2026, reflects a slight increase in perceived risk, now at 23.5% YES. What to Watch The lack of Ukrainian response to the Su-35 flight may prompt international scrutiny and discussions within NA...