XRP price climbs as Supertrend buy signal hints at 14% rally

XRP price has climbed to a three-day high after Ripple’s European expansion and a fresh Supertrend buy signal revived bullish sentiment.

According to data from crypto.news, XRP (XRP) price rose as much as 3% to an intraday high of $1.11 on July 3, extending its recovery from around $1.02 on July 1. The latest rebound follows Ripple’s regulatory progress in Europe, improving macro sentiment, and a bullish technical reversal that has encouraged buyers to return after weeks of sustained selling pressure. 

Since July 1, the market has continued to price in the company’s European expansion after Ripple Payments launched under preliminary Crypto-Asset Service Provider approval through the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework.

The development arrived just as some competing platforms scaled back parts of their European offerings to comply with MiCA rules, strengthening Ripple’s position in one of crypto’s fastest-growing regulated markets.

At the same time, investors largely dismissed concerns surrounding Ripple’s monthly 1 billion XRP escrow release after recognizing that most of the unlocked tokens are traditionally returned to escrow rather than sold into the market.

Bitcoin’s stabilization above the $61,000 area has also provided a more supportive backdrop for altcoins after weeks of heavy selling pressure. Risk appetite improved further as easing geopolitical tensions helped push crude oil prices to multi-month lows while softer U.S. economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin easing monetary policy later this year.

These macro developments have encouraged investors to rotate back into higher-beta digital assets after June’s defensive positioning.

Technical breakout puts $1.12 and $1.15 into focus

XRP’s technical structure has improved materially over the past two sessions. On the 1-day chart, price has broken above a descending trendline that had capped every rally since late May, ending more than a month of lower highs. The breakout has carried XRP back toward the $1.12 resistance area after reclaiming the psychologically important $1.10 level.

XRP price is close to breaking above a multi-month descending trendline resistance on the 1-day chart — July 3 | Source: crypto.news

The four-hour chart reinforces that bullish shift. XRP has reclaimed its Supertrend indicator near $1.05, while the MACD has completed a bullish crossover with expanding positive histogram bars. Price has also cleared horizontal resistance around $1.075 and is now approaching the next overhead supply zone near $1.125.

XRP 4-hour price chart — July 3 | Source: crypto.news

A decisive move above that barrier could expose the $1.15 region, while the Supertrend support near $1.05 and former resistance at $1.075 now serve as the first downside cushions.

Commenting on the setup, analyst Ali Martinez wrote in a July 3 X post:

“The SuperTrend indicator has just flashed a buy signal on XRP for the first time since mid-June. The last buy signal preceded a 14% rally.”

Martinez also noted that the indicator had correctly identified the previous 19% and 16% declines, adding weight to the latest reversal signal.

Derivatives positioning has also shifted in favor of bulls. CoinGlass liquidation data shows one of the largest short liquidation clusters sitting just above the current price between roughly $1.11 and $1.12.

XRP liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass

XRP has already begun pushing into that liquidity pocket, increasing the probability of additional forced buying if resistance breaks. Beyond that zone, another concentration of leveraged positions sits closer to $1.14, creating a potential path for an extended short squeeze should momentum continue.

On-chain sentiment has strengthened alongside the technical recovery. Sharing data from Santiment, Whale Factor highlighted that XRP’s average trading returns have fallen to their lowest level in roughly 12 years, leaving both short-term and long-term holders underwater. 

Historically, deeply negative MVRV readings have often coincided with major accumulation periods before meaningful recoveries. As Whale Factor summarized, “The more frustrated the crowd the faster the snap back when sentiment turns.”

Key risks remain despite the improving trend

The recovery still faces several hurdles before a sustained uptrend can be confirmed. The $1.12-$1.15 region contains multiple layers of technical resistance and dense leveraged positioning that could trigger renewed selling if buyers fail to force a breakout.

Any deterioration in Bitcoin’s price, a resurgence in geopolitical tensions that lifts energy prices, or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data that delays Federal Reserve rate cuts could quickly reduce appetite for altcoins.

On the charts, a fall back below $1.075 would weaken the current breakout, while a loss of the Supertrend support near $1.05 would place the recent bullish thesis under pressure and raise the risk of another retest of the $1.00 psychological support.