What happens to XRP if the CLARITY Act dies in September

The Sept. 15 cloture vote has 10% odds. XRP sits at $1. Ripple already won its SEC case. But the victory that holders treat as permanent was a district court ruling, not a statute, and the next Congress may not be friendly. Summary Polymarket prices the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage at roughly 20%, while Galaxy Digital and the Solana Policy Institute both assign 10% odds before the midterms, making failure the base case heading into the Sept. 15 cloture vote. XRP trades at $1.01 with a market capitalization of $63 billion, down 66.8% from its July 2025 high of $3.65, placing the token at the cost basis of holders who entered during the post settlement rally. The 2023 Torres ruling that programmatic XRP sales on exchanges are not securities remains a district court decision that has never been tested at the appellate level, leaving Ripple’s core legal shield one challenge away from reversal. Ripple’s planned IPO, its RLUSD stablecoin expansion, and the seven pending XRP spot ETF applications all depend on regulatory clarity that currently exists only as judicial precedent, not legislation. SBI Holdings reaffirmed a $41.2 billion exposure to Ripple equity in its latest disclosure, provi...