VanEck sets $500K Bitcoin target for 2029 amid Treasury accumulation plans

VanEck, one of the most active traditional asset managers in the crypto space, is projecting Bitcoin will hit $500,000 by 2029. The target sits within a broader thesis that connects Bitcoin’s price trajectory to potential US Treasury actions and growing institutional adoption. The projection is part of a layered set of forecasts from VanEck that get progressively more ambitious the further out you look. Their January 2026 capital market assumptions pegged Bitcoin’s base-case price at $2.9 million by 2050, a number premised on Bitcoin settling 5-10% of global trade and comprising 2.5% of central bank balance sheets. The $500K target for 2029 serves as a waypoint on that longer journey. The Treasury connection A significant pillar of VanEck’s thesis rests on the BITCOIN Act of 2024, proposed legislation that would direct the US Treasury to acquire up to 1 million BTC by 2029. That’s roughly 4.8% of Bitcoin’s total 21 million supply cap, sitting in the hands of a single sovereign buyer. For context, US spot Bitcoin ETPs already held over 1.26 million BTC as of February 2026, representing approximately 6% of total supply. Proponents argue that a strategic Bitcoin reserve could help off...