US Treasury reportedly keeping bond auction sizes steady to avoid pre-election market chaos

The US Treasury is expected to hold its bond auction sizes unchanged in its upcoming quarterly refunding statement, according to JPMorgan strategists. The reasoning is straightforward: don’t rock the boat when voters are about to head to the polls. JPMorgan’s team, led by strategist Jay Barry, anticipates that the August 2026 refunding announcement will maintain the Treasury’s existing guidance on auction sizes. That means no increases to bond sales, no dramatic language shifts, and certainly nothing that might send long-term yields spiking during a politically sensitive window. The election factor The November 2026 refunding announcement is scheduled for just one day after the midterm elections on November 8. By keeping its powder dry until voters have spoken, the Treasury avoids becoming a campaign talking point or, worse, the catalyst for a bond market selloff that lands on the front page of every newspaper in swing districts. Long-maturity yields have been hovering near their highest levels since President Trump took office. In that environment, even a subtle shift in Treasury guidance, like signaling larger future auctions, could push yields higher still. JPMorgan’s strategist...