US to withdraw military, lift naval blockade near Iran: Iran’s State TV

## Market Snapshot The market for “Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?” is currently priced at 54.5% YES, up from 48% 24 hours ago. Another related market, “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31,” is priced at 62.5% YES, slightly down from 63%.

## Key Takeaways – The announcement of a US military withdrawal appears to increase the likelihood of increased ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz. – Ending the naval blockade suggests a greater probability of traffic normalization by July 31. – Short-term expectations for normal traffic levels by May 31 remain low, despite the positive indicators.

## Article Body Iran’s State TV has reported a draft Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) indicating that US military forces will withdraw from the vicinity of Iran and lift the naval blockade. This development comes as part of ongoing diplomatic dialogues aimed at reducing tensions in the region. The potential withdrawal and blockade cessation represent significant steps towards de-escalating military tensions, possibly leading to increased commercial shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. The US and Iran have been involved in longstanding negotiations to address military presence and maritime security in the Gulf region.

## Market Interpretation The news appears to be highly supportive of a YES outcome for increased ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with an impact considered high. Market pricing suggests participants view the US military withdrawal and blockade lifting as significant indicators for normalization. However, immediate traffic normalization by the end of May remains less certain, reflecting a moderate impact.

## What to Watch Watch for confirmations from the US Department of Defense regarding the withdrawal and blockade lifting. Additional attention will be on Iran’s official stance and any subsequent announcements about the removal of restrictions on maritime traffic. Observers should also watch for updates from maritime agencies such as IMF Portwatch and shipping insurance companies regarding changes in risk assessments and transit conditions.

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Strait of hormuz traffic normal by july 31 bullish

62% FLAT

Strait of hormuz traffic by may bullish

2% FLAT