US tariff revenue turns negative for first time ever as $166B in refunds reshape fiscal landscape

The US government collected negative tariff revenue last month. Net customs duties receipts came in at -$25.6B in June 2026, marking the first time in American history that the government paid out more in tariff refunds than it brought in from new collections. The culprit: a massive wave of refunds triggered by the Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling that struck down the broad tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The government is now unwinding what it collected, and the math is brutal. How the US ended up owing importers billions Starting in April 2025, the Trump administration used IEEPA to slap tariffs on goods from multiple countries. When the Supreme Court ruled those tariffs unconstitutional in February 2026, it opened the door for refunds on duties already paid. The estimated refund tab: roughly $166B, which represents approximately three-quarters of all tariff revenue collected between April 2025 and February 2026. May 2026 offered an early warning sign. Tariff income and refund outlays nearly balanced that month, suggesting the crossover point was approaching. June erased any ambiguity. Refund outflows overwhelmed new collections by $25.6...