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US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $1 billion in net inflows last week, and the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April is at 32.5% YES, up from 24% a week ago.
The inflow points to strong institutional demand for Bitcoin, creating a demand floor while the US-Iran ceasefire holds but geopolitical uncertainty persists. The April 15 market sits at 100% YES, with traders confident Bitcoin’s price will stay within the $78,000 to $80,000 range.
The June 30 all-time high market is at 3.1% YES, which shows traders are skeptical about a new all-time high in the near term. Sustained ETF inflows cut against that skepticism. If institutional buying continues at this pace, odds for a new high could move upward.
At 42¢, a YES share on the $80K-by-April contract pays $1 if Bitcoin hits that level, a 2.38x return. That bet depends on continued ETF inflows and the US-Iran ceasefire holding.
The next weekly ETF flow report and any changes to the US-Iran ceasefire are the two catalysts to track. A spike in net inflows or a breakdown in the ceasefire could move these contracts sharply.
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