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US officials are set to discuss resuming bombing campaigns on Iran. The market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
With only six days left until the April 30 resolution, the fully priced-in odds for Iranian military action against Israel reflect trader consensus that escalation is coming. The market for UK military action against Iran by April 30 remains at 0.8% YES, unchanged despite the recent news.
The 100% odds on Iran striking Israel suggest traders expect action before the deadline, possibly from a ceasefire breakdown or retaliatory strikes. The UK market’s low odds point to skepticism about a broader coalition response in the near term.
Trading volumes reflect the gap in market activity. The Iran military action market shows zero face value volume, consistent with full consensus that Iran will act. The UK strike market has $10,135 in face value but only $132 in actual USDC traded, meaning thin liquidity and room for sharp price swings.
The bombing resumption discussion raises the stakes. At 1¢, buying YES on UK action offers a 125x return if resolved, but the odds reflect trader conviction that this is unlikely. A payout would require something like a coalition response, a significant shift from current positioning.
Watch for statements from US officials after the discussion. A decision to resume bombing could move odds across related regional markets.
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