US Midterms Are Here: History Points to a Stock Rally but Trouble for Bitcoin

History points to a surprisingly bullish setup for the S&P 500 despite the current struggles, while BTC could be heading for another leg down. The 2026 US midterm elections could become an important catalyst for both equities and crypto, particularly if President Donald Trump loses control of both the House and Senate. Prediction markets currently put the probability of a Democratic sweep at roughly 76%, while Democrats are priced at around 94%-95% to win the House and approximately 76% to take the Senate. Bullish for the S&P 500? A widely circulating analysis online, including one published by Michael Burry Stock Tracker account, highlights that there have been seven occasions since 1954 when a president lost both chambers of Congress to the opposition during the midterms. Interestingly, in six of the seven cases, the S&P 500 rose by an average of 2.1% in the following month alone. The increases jump to 10.7% in the next three months, rising to 17.5% after six months, and 15.5% after one year. In all seven cases, the benchmark index was higher three, six, and 12 months after the election. Obviously, history doesn’t guarantee future price performance, as it doesn’t mean...