US midterm election poses political risk to AI infrastructure trade

The AI infrastructure trade, one of the market’s most crowded and confident bets over the past two years, is running into an obstacle that no amount of GPU optimization can fix: voters who really don’t want a data center in their backyard. Bipartisan opposition to the rapid expansion of AI data centers across the US is gaining enough momentum to become a genuine campaign issue ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections. Between 57% and 71% of Americans now oppose new local data center construction, a disapproval rate that actually exceeds opposition to nuclear energy plants. The numbers tell a stark story At least 75 data center projects worth approximately $130B were either delayed or canceled in Q1 2026, largely because of local pushback. Gallup polling shows opposition to data centers rose from 28% in January to 41% by July 2026, nearly doubling in six months. The political response has been swift and bipartisan. New York Governor Kathy Hochul enacted a one-year statewide moratorium on large-scale data centers in July 2026. Texas Governor Greg Abbott paused approvals for new data center projects in August 2026. Wall Street is starting to pay attention Analysts at Barclays have...