US launches Operation Economic Outcast to isolate Iran, warns trade partners

Washington has initiated a campaign, dubbed Operation Economic Outcast, aimed at cutting off Iran’s trade while warning other nations of losing access to the U.S. market if they continue business with Tehran. This move is part of a broader strategy to isolate Iran economically and politically, adding pressure to ongoing geopolitical tensions. The announcement has influenced prediction markets related to U.S.-Iran relations, particularly those concerning potential deals in 2026. Market participants have reacted to this development by adjusting their expectations regarding a potential U.S.-Iran deal that includes Iran Reconstruction Funding. The perceived likelihood of such an agreement has decreased significantly, with the odds dropping to around 13.5% from higher percentages earlier in the week. The pressure from the U.S. campaign appears to be a major factor influencing this outlook, suggesting that the chances of a comprehensive deal have become more uncertain. The market’s reaction reflects concerns that increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran could impede diplomatic efforts. Key actors like U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif remain central...