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The US labor market is losing steam. ADP’s latest private-sector employment report shows just 98,000 jobs added in June, falling short of the 110,000 to 120,000 range economists had penciled in and dropping from May’s 122,000 figure.
The unemployment rate, meanwhile, is expected to hold at 4.3% for the fourth consecutive month when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its official nonfarm payroll numbers.
The numbers tell a clear story
Last month’s BLS report caught markets off guard with a surprisingly strong gain of 172,000 nonfarm payrolls. That number sparked fresh speculation about imminent Federal Reserve rate hikes and applied pressure across risk assets. Bitcoin hovered around $62,000 during that period of heightened volatility.
The leisure and hospitality sectors, which have been reliable job engines throughout the post-pandemic recovery, are showing mixed signals.
What the Fed is thinking, and why crypto cares
Stronger job numbers in May had reduced the odds of rate cuts and created temporary headwinds for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The logic is straightforward: when the Fed keeps rates elevated, money stays in safer assets like Treasury bonds. Risk assets, crypto included, become relatively less attractive.
Four months of unemployment locked at 4.3% provides some evidence of a moderating labor market, but the Fed has been clear it wants to see sustained evidence of cooling before changing course.
What this means for crypto investors
Bitcoin’s behavior around $62,000 during May’s stronger-than-expected jobs report demonstrated just how connected digital assets have become to traditional macro indicators.
Volatility is likely to persist regardless of how the official numbers land. The gap between ADP’s 98,000 and last month’s BLS figure of 172,000 is wide enough to keep uncertainty elevated.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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