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A Pakistani diplomat said ongoing US-Iran negotiations depend on concessions from both sides. The market on whether no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by June 30 sits at 8% YES, up from 3% yesterday.
Traders adjusted positions quickly after the remarks. The June 30 market saw odds rise, meaning traders are less confident a meeting happens soon. The order book is thin: just $264 can move the price by five points.
The Iranian demands Trump will agree to in April market dropped to 14% YES, down from 26% yesterday. The decline tracks with no public signals from the White House of willingness to grant Iranian oil sanction relief this month.
The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market is at 2% YES, also down. The diplomatic impasse and absence of any framework for a comprehensive deal make an April resolution nearly impossible to price higher.
These markets collectively trade over $200K daily in face value, though actual USDC traded is much lower, a sign of cautious participation. One trade moved odds by five points, which shows how little liquidity backs these prices. At a 14¢ price, a YES share on Trump agreeing to concessions pays $1 if it resolves, a potential 7.14x return. That payout reflects how unlikely the market considers it given the current deadlock.
Watch for announcements from the White House or Iranian Foreign Ministry, and statements from the Omani Foreign Minister specifically. Any shift in language or a new round of talks could move these thin markets fast.
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