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U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz’s comments on Trump’s threat to target Iranian infrastructure have pushed prediction markets sharply lower. Odds for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, dropped to 19.5%, down from 40% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The April 22 peace deal market fell by more than half, while the April 30 market is now at 39.5%, down from 61%. The term structure shows traders expect a potential catalyst between April 30 and May 31, with a 22-point jump in that window. The May 31 market declined to 58.5%.
Why it matters
The Iranian demands market also fell hard. Odds of Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief in April dropped to 43.5%, a 15-point fall from 62% yesterday. The order book is thin: just $816 can shift the price 5 points, meaning a single large trade could easily move these markets.
Waltz’s statement signals a hardline U.S. approach, making a conciliatory move from Trump less likely. For a YES payout at 43.5¢ to make sense, traders would need to believe in a complete policy reversal within days. Given the current trajectory, that requires a significant diplomatic breakthrough.
What to watch
Any announcements from Islamabad talks or changes in Pentagon operational language. A shift in Iran’s stance or a new mediation proposal could move these markets quickly.
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